Ноя 12

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS BY NSFX 12.11.2015

  • BY: Donal Kelly
  • Ноябрь, 12th, 2015 20:31 +00:00

Good evening,

ECB`s Draghi did not tell exactly what the financial community expected, and combinated with a short term bullish technical setup, EurUsd is gaining 53 pips at 1.0795 (+0.49%). The long term trend of the rate is bearish and below 1.0470 the parity would be reached in a short time frame. The European Central Bank is dovish, but in the FX market, like any market, there are speculators with different time horizon. Today scalpers that believed in a trading setup formed by daily candlestick with bullish spike had their profit, but on a wider time frame trading setups to short EurUsd are more interesting, for both technical and fundamental reasons. The rate cut on deposits is not as important as the artificially low rate on sovereign bonds of the Euro area. A 24 hour strike in Greece and the probability that in Portugal a socialist party will run the government should be a clear signal of the risks of the shared currency. Today Many FED members held a speech and beside the positive job data of today and the last week, the FED is running a credibility risk if it will not rise rates the next month.

Gold traded intraday below its multiyear low and then technical traders lifted the commodity off its lows. Now is trading at 1,084 (-0.24%). Below the static support the shiny metal may test the psychological area 1,000 $/oz., a level that was traded the last time 6 years ago. Crude Oil negative momentum continued today as well and the commodity is trading at 41.74 (-2.77%); August low may be reached again and below 37$/barrel, that is the bottom level of the financial crisis back in 2008, Crude Oil may reach 30$/barrel, bringing several countries that relies in exports of the commodity with huge deficit problems.

Tomorrow morning German and Eurozone as well GDP data will be the most interesting events in the European session then at 13:30 GMT during US Retail Sales data volatility will reach its intraday peak.

(20:10 GMT)