04/12/2013

Dec 04

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS BY NSFX 04.12.2013

  • BY:
  • December, 04th, 2013 9:00 +00:00

Good morning,

 

Yesterday equities in US closed in negative territory: the DJIA finished the session at 15,914.6   (-0.59%), or down 94.15 points. The S&P500 lost 5.75 points at  1,795 (-0.32%) and the Nasdaq  closed at 4,037.2 (-0.20%), down 8.06 points.

Investors and traders are taking profit after the rally that lifted prices sometimes to uncharted territories.  The release of many economic data will likely increase the volatility of the trading week and  based on the outcome the financial community is evaluating the future behaviour of  central banks, especially the quantitative easing of the Federal Reserve because what are doing the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England is not expected to change in the medium time horizon. Risks of deflation in the Eurozone might lead Mr. Draghi to follow the Federal Reserve strategy.  The ECB has the only mandate of inflation targeting and a deflationary environment could make the ECB to expand its balance sheet.

In Asia the Nikkei closed at 15,407.9 (-2.17%), down 341.72 points . The Hang Seng in Hong Kong lost 181.77 points at 23,728.7 (-0.76%). In Australia the ASX200 gained 17.68 points at 5273.75 (+0.34%).

In Europe at 8:37 GMT equity indices are positive after yesterday profit taking. The STOXX50 is up 9.27 points at 3,023.15 (+0.31%) and in Germany the DAX is trading at 9,244, or up 21.25 points (+0.23%). In Uk the FTSE100 is up only 6.7 points at 6,539.13 (+0.10%).

In the FX market the EurUsd is trading close to 1.36 at 1.3590 (+0.01%) and after yesterday retracement the UsdJpy is at 102.7 (+0.18%). GbpUsd failed to gain 1.64 area for the moment and is at 1.6370 (-0.12%). The Australian dollar is sold across the board after GDP data that missed  expectations.  AudUsd at 0.9021 (-1.26%) and AudJpy at 92.64 (-1.05%).

Precious metals are losing ground and Gold is trading at 1216 $/ounce (-0.58%) and Silver is at 18.96 $/ounce (-0.76%).  Crude oil is continuing its positive momentum and is gaining 1.27$ at 97.31 $/barrel (+1.32%). Natural Gas is just below the psychological level 4 $/BTU and is trading at 3.99 $/BTU (+0.28%)  and is nearly up 20% in one month after the sharp decline of temperature in many states in US required an excess of demand of the commodity.

The Economic calendar is quite rich with Eurozone GDP data and Retail Sales that will be released at 10:00 GMT. The Bank of Canada statement at 15:00 GMT  will likely increase the Loonie dollar volatility. At the same time in US the ISM  Non-Manufacturing  PMI and data regarding New Home Sales will be released.