Oct 14


  • BY:
  • October, 14th, 2015 19:04 +00:00

Good evening,

The US dollar is the loser of today trading session, with both major and emerging currencies soaring, thanks to US Retail Sales data ( Actual at+0.1% vs +0.2% Expected) that consolidated the negative trend that was developed in the previous sessions. EurUsd, up 68 pips at 1.1464 (+0.75%), broke the supply line that was generated last year when it was trading at 1.4. This technical breakout mirrors the global macro view of the financial community regarding the FED.  A weak US CPI data tomorrow can trigger more bullish positions on  EurUsd  and the rate can test its August top at 1.17 in a short time window.

The S&P500 in US is trading close to its intraday low and now is losing 9.17 points at 1,994.52 (-0.46%). The index could not rise above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,021.9 and is down for the second consecutive day. The Beige Book released at 18:00 GMT mentioned a slower grow in the US economy that brought the gauge in negative territory.  If the Greenback is sold across the board and equities are losing interest of portfolio managers, Gold can exit its multiyear bear market soon for 3 reasons. First, the commodity today consolidated  above its 200SMA. Second: the FED is scared to hike rates. Third: sector rotation, considering the excess reversal of commodities compared to equities. Gold is trading at 1,187.44 $/oz (+1.61%), up 18.66$. Crude Oil, with EIA inventories that will be released tomorrow at 15:00 GMT, is trading at 46.97 $/barrel (-0.17%).

The Asian session will be interesting for the Aussie dollar because it will be released the Australian unemployment rate at 00:30 GMT  and then Japanese industrial Production at 04:30 GMT. Important also to follow Chinese Money supply M2 (time n/a), because it is fundamental in the mechanism of transmission of the monetary policy, with effects on equities and commodities.

(18:40 GMT)