Oct 16


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  • October, 16th, 2015 19:55 +00:00

Good evening,

EurUsd rose 1000 pips from its March low and the rally of the shared currency had a negative effect on Eurozone Trade Balance n.s.a. On August the data at €19.8B deteriorated from previous €31.4B. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index- Core (YoY) was at +0.9% in September, and the ECB meeting on next Thursday may write another chapter of the "currency war".  With the ECB that might increase its QE and the FED that may postpone its rate hike to 2016, it is quite clear that growth is below the expectations of both Draghi and Yellen.  The International Monetary Fund analysis of the current trend of  the global economy is gaining support, and despite the rally on equities that lifted the S&P500 for the third consecutive week, it may be possible another bearish wave on global indices. Commodity currencies, with the NzdUsd dollar that made a "cup and handle" pattern, could rise synchronized with equities to test medium term resistances before to retrace during risk reversal trades.

The  Reuters/Michigan data at 92.1 was above the consensus, and US indices are in a trading range environment. DJIA is up 56.69 points at 17,198.44 (+0.33%). Gold is in profit taking at 1,180.10 (-0.62%), but still above the most relevant moving averages. Crude Oil is gaining 88 cents at 47.75 $/barrel (+1.86%)  and EurUsd is losing 25 pips at 1.1361 (-0.22%). UsdJpy is up 59 pips at 119.46 (+0.50%).

Have a nice weekend

(19:30 GMT)