Nov 06


  • BY: Donal Kelly
  • November, 06th, 2015 21:40 +00:00

Good evening,

US Non Farm Payrolls at +271k (the consensus was at +181K) triggered a rally of the Greenback. EurUsd is trading at 1.0741 (-1.31%), down 143 pips and GbpUsd is losing 158 pips at 1.50348 (-1.04%).  UsdJpy rose more thanks to the US economy than Kuroda speech and the rate is trading at 123.2 (+1.20%), up 146 pips, and the pair made a breakout of a medium term trading range that can lift UsdJpy to 130, a level traded 15 years ago. EurUsd is trading below the most relevent moving averages, and US jobs data and unemployment rate as well increased the probability of a FED rate hike next month. On the same time window ECB Draghi should unveil a new toolkit of QE, thus EurUsd medium term view is bearish. The parity may be reached by the end of this year. Only reversal carry trades in a sudden selloff on risky assets can lift the shared currency and equities started to discount a positive yield curve with moderate volatility.

Profit taking on Crude Oil that is losing 73 cents at 44.47 $/barrel (-1.62%), but Gold is losing ground (near 100$ loss in 10 sessions)  because buyers disappeared,  and the shiny metal lost today 16.2$ at 1,088$/oz(-1.47%). Below 1080 $/oz the commodity can test 1,000; a bearish wave is likely because central banks are fighting against deflation.

The S&P500 closed just below the opening at 2,099.2 (-0.03%), thus seems that indices are ready for a rate increase after 7 years of  monetary policy that tripled the value of many global indices.