Dec 15


  • BY:
  • December, 15th, 2015 19:52 +00:00

Good evening,

Positive risk appetite in Europe and US as well, with the DAX that closed at 10,450.38 (+3.07%) and the S&P500 in US is gaining 30.09 points at 2,052.03 (+1.49%).  Crude Oil is rallying 1.15$ to 37.46 $/barrel (+3.17%), as the commodity was oversold and traders wanted to take profit on their short positions before tomorrow, as the FED should start to rise rates, the first rate hike in almost a decade. The effect will be unknown, because is not clear if risky assets have already discounted an interest rate increase as the information flow on leveraged positions and derivatives needs to be digested by market participants and thus making predictions is dangerous. Taking positions with consciousness of the risks and the rewards is the key to make good trades, and a good trade is also a position that is closed with a reasonable stop loss that proves to be wrong, because it avoids worse losses.

In the FX market the US dollar is up, as hedge find managers get debts in Euro and invest in US when risky asset have positive market sentiment. EurUsd is trading at 1.0923 (-0.62%) and UsdJpy is at 121.69 (+0.55%). Cable down 96 pips at 1.5045 (-0.63%), as the UK CPI  at +0.1% YoY  is not a threat to real interest rates.

Tomorrow at 10:00 GMT will be released the Eurozone Trade Balance and CPI as well, thus it may be possible to see a volatile session in the morning as well, as the FED at 19:00 GMT will decide the interest rate level followed at 19:30 GMT by the Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement.

(19:45 GMT)