Dec 30

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS BY NSFX 30.12.2015

  • BY:
  • December, 30th, 2015 18:23 +00:00

Good evening,

Energy commodities are the worst performers of the day, with Natural Gas at 2.20 $/BTU (-6.84%) and Crude Oil down 1.37$ at 36.5 $/barrel (-3.62%).  US indices are losing less than half point percentage,  but the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite as well will close the year above their 200 daily SMA but below the record high.  The S&P500 rallied this month after made a multiple bottom in area 2,000. A retracement below this level will bring the index near level 1,840. 

In the FX market EurUsd spent almost the month in a 200 pips trading range, and now the rate is trading at 1.0911 (-0.0.7%). EurUsd may reach the parity if measures adopted by the ECB will not improve public sector finances of country members of the Eurozone. The British Pound could also slide below this year low in case the BOE will keep low the expectations of a rate hike.   Oceanic currencies are very sensitive to China and commodity prices as well, thus if a trader will go long on the Aussie dollar on a trend following strategy would be equivalent to be long on the Chinese market. Replication of trading strategies using currencies is seen less risky in terms of liquidity but there are risks that local factors will change correlations. The Japanese Yen is off its multiyear low but Kuroda and Abe will do whatever it takes to weak the currency also because Japan is facing a demographic shift and cheaper exports may offset a decrease in local consumption.

Gold is trading at 1.059.5 $/oz (-0.80%) and in 2016 the shiny metal will end its multiyear bear market in case the FED wont rise again rates.

(18:15 GMT)