Dec 31


  • BY:
  • December, 31st, 2015 18:08 +00:00

Good evening,

In the last trading day of 2015, forex traders not only evaluate their performance but also consider what happened in the currency market this year.The US dollar rose against all the major currencies this year and this trend may continue if the FED will continue to rise rates.  One of the main event was the decision of the Swiss National Bank to remove the floor on EurChf last January, an event that triggered brokers/dealers defaults after clients went on negative balance because liquidity disappeared for few minutes and spreads widened.  Today UsdChf is trading at 1.0011, thus the shock did not have a long term impact on prices. Oceanic currencies suffered the Chinese slowdown and reversal carry trades after rate cuts in a deflationary environment. EurUsd avoided to reach the parity but if the ECB will increase its quantitative easing the parity will be reached on 2016, considering that is less than 1,000 pips distant from current market price.

This was a terrible year for energy commodities, with Crude Oil down 35.67% and Natural Gas down 31.48%. Gold lost only 10% but the shiny metal is still in a multiyear bear market that may end only if real interest rates will go negative.  Performance below 10% for European Indices and the DJIA gained just 0.38% in 12 months.  China will be monitored because with a weak local economy commodities will have low probability to rebound and sustain a positive trend.  The pace of the FED rate hike will be also one of the main economic theme of the year. In case some Eurozone members will not be able to avoid a decoupling from Germany, it would be possible to see the Troika in action again.