Feb 03


  • BY: Donal Kelly
  • February, 03rd, 2016 21:08 +00:00

Good evening,

Crude Oil inventories data was the catalyst that placed  Crude Oil in a battle between bulls and bears. Sellers expected another bearish wave but buyers were confident that the commodity would not trade below the 61.8% Fibonacci support of the recent rally. Crude Oil is gaining 2.4$ at 33.21 $/barrel (+8.03%), but only above 35.5 is likely to see momentum trading in the medium term.

US indices fluctuate today, with the S&P500 up 5.63 points at 1,908.06 (+0.30%).  EurUsd is up 191 points at 1.1110 (+1.75%), the highest level since November. Financial institutions in Eurozone are under pressure and the Euro soared not because the risk appetite increased in the shared economy but because were placed several reversal carry trades.Reversal triggered by 2 important factors: it is very unlikely that the FED will make 4 rate hikes this year and also deleveraging on risky assets funded in Euro.  Of course this is just an hypothesis but it seems unlikely that  EurUsd soared thanks only to global macro trades. UsdJpy is losing ground as well, with the rate down 226 pips at 117.69 (-1.89%).

Tomorrow at 8:00 GMT ECB President Draghi will hold a speech and then at 12:00 GMT will be the turn of the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. The US session will be poor of relevant events.

(20:50 GMT)