20130911

Good morning,

Markets enjoyed a decent session, despite a fairly uneventful session with Chinese Industrial Production setting the positive tone from the beginning of the day, which kept a positive momentum throughout the day. Also a decrease of the tension surrounding the situation in Syria, as the US President Obama is looking for a more diplomatic approach, kept risk taking on the bid. Oil fell as a consequence. The US Dollar generally continued on the offer, and we have witnessed a fair follow-through since Friday's weaker than expected August Job Report. EUR/USD is pushing to break above short-term 50% Fibo at 1.3275, which opens up for a test of 1.3315 and then 1.3370 to the upside with 1.3215 (50-day SMA) acting as support.

Overnight, the Asian stock markets were mixed and the JPY fell across the board as risk-taking extended into the beginning of the Asian session, but faded later. USD/JPY printing new seven-week highs at 100.61 with resistance at 100.87 and EUR/JPY is not far from the 2013 top at 133.79.

Today, the market will especially be looking at GBP-pairs, as we have UK employment figures at 08:30GMT, and since the BoE set the tone for their forward rate guidance measures, these will be of particular interest. GBP/USD has already been well bid for the past two weeks, and we could see a push above key resistance at 1.5751, should the figures come out better than expected. Recall, that BoE Governor Carney has mentioned that the interest rate will not be touched before the unemployment rate falls to 7.0%. Today's consensus for the ILO Unemployment rate is unchanged at 7.8%, but some analysts are mentioning a drop to 7.7%.

Later, we have US Wholesale Inventories (exp. at 0.3% vs. -0.2% prior) as well as the RBNZ Cash Rate from New Zealand, which is expected unchanged at 2.50%.

Have a nice day!