20131125

Good morning,

A decent close last Friday in US equities was followed up this morning in Asia on back of a lowering of the geo-political risks in the Middle East as Iran agreed to cut its nuclear program. This triggered oil to gap one-dollar dollar lower on the opening and boosted sentiment in risky assets. In currencies, the JPY was on the offer across the board sending USD/JPY above the July 2013 top and now chasing the highs from May 2013 at 103.73. EUR/JPY is flirting with the 138-figure with 2009 highs inbound at 139.20.

EUR/USD came back decently on Thursday and Friday, but is still trapped within the 50- and 100-day SMAs coinciding with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements in the wave from July-October 2013. The calendar for today is not that interesting, but the Pending Home Sales from the US at 15:00GMT could trigger some volatility. With the recent deal in Iran and a generally positive sentiment in the markets, we could see the US Dollar being offered against the EUR and GBP in today's trading session, should the US Housing data come out as expected at +2.0% against a drop of 5.6% in September.

Looking into the week, US data in the coming days will be intense in the light of the Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. Housing Starts and Consumer Confidence tomorrow and Durables, Chicago PMI and Michigan Confidence on Wednesday will get market focus. From the Euro zone, the November Inflation data will be interesting on Friday on back of the recent cut in interest rates by the ECB. UK will focus on GDP data on Wednesday, where Japan also will take center stage in Asia with the release of the CPI, Unemployment as well as the Industrial Production.

Have a nice day!