20131127

Good morning,

Global markets have generally been on the offer for the past 24 hours as a result of profit taking and somewhat weaker than expected macro data from the US. The Consumer Confidence disappointed the markets yesterday and there is a upward pressure on rates as revealed in the  4-wk Bill and 5-yr Note auctions. US Housing has been in focus this week and following the weaker than expected Pending Home Sales on Monday, Tuesday showed a boost in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices as well as stronger than expected Building Permits, which came out at the highest level since 2008. Gold and Oil are both under significant bearish pressure, but have consolidated lower. Gold in the 1225-1260 range and Oil 92.50-96.

The EUR was bid after the CDU and SPD in Germany reached a coalition accord and EUR/USD has currently breached the 50-day SMA at 1.3568, testing the 23.6% Fibo retracement in the wave from July lows to October highs. A close above would give room for a test of the recent highs at 1.3830-area.

Overnight, the AUD was under continued bearish pressure after the RBA  announced the they could see "further adjustment in the currency" - indicating that the lower AUD will benefit the economy from a trade-related perspective. AUD/USD is close to trend support projected from the August lows, currently at 0.9060.

Today, we have a string of interesting figures - with the US in focus in the light of Thanksgiving. First, however, the UK GDP for Q3 will be the main figure ahead of lunch, where consensus is for an increase to 0.8% from 0.7% in Q2. This can mainly be attributed to an expected pick-up in domestic demand. Should the figures come out to the upside, we could see Cable testing the 1.6260 Double-Top level.

From the US, Durable Goods, Chicago PMI and the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence will be interesting and we could see volatility pick up if we see surprises in the figures!

Have a great day!