20140310

Good morning,

In US equities had a positive performance during  the  last five trading weeks,  and on Friday the S&P closed at 1,877 (+1.05% weekly), up 19.50 points, on a new all time high and now  new target in unchartered territory seems 1,900. Nasdaq  gained 9 points at 3,704.25 (+0.25% weekly) but  underperformed other gauges.  DJIA rose 140 points at 16,447 (+0.86% weekly).

Risk taking positions lifted equity indices and if a selloff based on profit taking will not take place is likely to see a trading range environment where traders could catch intraday opportunities instead of trend following position.  A reversal risk appetite environment  might occur when the financial community will realize that the  US economy  is not the only driver when risk factors has to be taken in the  decision making strategy.

In the FX market EurUsd closed on Friday nearly its weekly high near static resistance 1.39 at 1.3879 (+0.57% weekly), up 79 pips. UsdJpy after it traded in a range for a month rose to 103.28 (+1.50% weekly) with a gain of 153 pips.  GbpUsd dropped 31 pips to 1.6710 (-0.19% weekly) and UsdChf made a new 2014 low and finished the session at 0.8776 (-0.22% weekly), down 19 pips. The greenback lost ground against both the Aussie dollar and the Kiwi dollar:  NzdUsd at 0.8469 (+1.11% weekly) gained 93 pips and AudUsd closed at 0.9067 (+1.65% weekly) rose 147 pips.

Gold and Silver went in different direction; the shiny metal gained 18.3$ at 1,339.9 $/ounce (+1.38% weekly) and Silver continued to fall after it failed to rise above the dynamic resistance generated from the 2011 top when it traded at 50$/ounce. The commodity closed at 20.92 $/ounce (-1.53% weekly). Crude oil traded in a 3$ range and closed at 102.58 $/barrel (-0.01%).  Natural Gas at 4.63 $/BTU (+0.46% weekly) reduced sharply its volatility.

On Monday at 00:50 GMT will be released the GDP data in Japan; another important data from Asia will be the release of New Yuan Loans at 05:00 GMT.  On Tuesday at 09:15 GMT  Swiss Industrial Production data will add volatility likely on the UsdChf pair. At 10:30 in UK the Industrial Production figures will be released. On Wednesday at 00:30 GMT in Australia the Westpac consumer confidence figures and at 06:00 GMT in Japan consumer confidence will be the most important data of the day. At 11:00 GMT Industrial Production  data regarding the Eurozone  will be the most important event during the morning session in Europe. At 12:00 GMT in US  Mortgage Application will test the health of the house market. At 21:00 GMT the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will make the decision regarding interest rates, now at 2.5% but expected to rise to 2.75%. On Thursday at 01:30 GMT job data in Australia will have a weight on future monetary policy. At 06:30 GMT in China will be released the Retail Sales data and in US at 13:30 GMT will be released Advance Retail sales fugures. At the same time there will be the weekly appointment with  new and continued jobless claims figures. On Friday at 14:55 GMT the University of Michigan Confidence data, expected at 81.6, will be the most relevant data of the day.