20140324

Good morning,

Last week US equities had a positive performance: the DJIA gained 228 points at 16,220 (+1.43% weekly) and the S&P500 closed at 1,857 (1.35% weekly), up 24.75 points. Nasdaq rose as well and even retraced from the intraweek high closed at 3,642.25 (+0.59% weekly).

The US economy is strengthening considering the improvement of macro data like jobless claims and manufacturing. This is an important factor that offset the reduction of liquidity caused by tapering and the FED might start to rise interest rates 6 months after the end of the stimulus program.

In the currency market the EurUsd could not reach a new 2014 high and retraced 120 pips at 1.3792 (-0.86% weekly). UsdJpy rose 92 pips to 102.26 (+0.90% weekly) and GbpUsd dropped for the second consecutive week at 1.6485 (-0.97% weekly), down 161 pips.  UsdCad after reached a new 2014 high rose 120 pips at 1.1223 (+1.08% weekly). UsdChf after 6 consecutive losing week rebounded and rose 106 pips at 0.8826 (+1.22% weekly). NzdUsd closed unchanged at 0.8530 and could be possible a reversal for this pair after reached a new 2014 high.

Precious metals lost ground and during five trading days Gold lost 44.5$ at 1,334.5 $/ounce (-3.23% weekly) and Silver closed at 20.3 $/ounce (-5.18% weekly). Natural Gas continued to fall after the top at 6.5 $/BTU reached last month and closed at 4.31 $/BTU (-2.51% weekly). Crude Oil rose 73 cents at 99.62 $/barrel (+0.74% weekly).

Overnight, we saw a decent rally in risk taking despite the China HSBC/Markit PMI fell short of expectations.  At 08:00 GMT figures regarding Eurozone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing will be released in Europe.  On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean at 12:58 will be the turn of the US Markit PMI preliminary. On Tuesday at 09:30 GMT  the most relevant data of the morning will be the UK Consumer Price Index.  At 13:00 in US  will be tested the health of the housing sector with the House Price Index; at the same time will be released the Case-Shiller Composite. At 14:00 GMT will be the turn of US New Home Sales and at the same time Consumer Confidence figures.

On Wednesday at 07:00 GMT data regarding the Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator will increase likely the volatility on the Swiss Franc. At 12:30 GMT Durable Goods data in US will be the most important macro data of the day. At 20:00 GMT the Federal Reserve will release the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review Results and at 21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance data will be a catalyst for the kiwi dollar. At 09:30 GMT on Thursday UK Retail Sales data will have an impact on the morning performance of the British Pound and at 12:30 a series of data will be released in US:  Gross Domestic Product, Personal Consumpation, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims. At 12:30 GMT US  Pending Home Sales figures will give to the financial community a framework regarding the inventory flow of the real estate market. At 23:30 GMT the Japanese Consumer Price Index data will be important for traders with Japanese Yen positions.

On Friday at 09:30 GMT in UK the GBP Gross Domestic Product and at 10:00 GMT Eurozone Economic Confidence will be the most relevant data of the European session. At 12:30 GMT in US Personal Spending and Personal Income followed by the University of Michigan at 13:55 GMT will close the macro flow for the trading week.