Fundamental analysis update 09/02/2015

Good evening,

AUD/USD is currently trading in a narrow range (0.7810-0.7820) and will look to Chinese CPI and PPI for some direction. Expect some volatily in the Aussie session when these figures get released at 01:30 GMT. In other Australian news, Prime Minister Tony Abbott has survived a challenge to his leadership.  However, instability in government is not good for business confidence and could have flow on effects.

Key data tomorrow from other areas in the world include Great Britain Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Swiss CPI, and US Wholesale Inventories.

In oil news, OPEC has said that global oil supply growth is expected to slow in 2015.  This is due to producers reducing output due to dramatic falls in oil prices.  Oil has increased in price recently, partly due to OPEC suggesting that oil demand is expected to be greater than expected. The current market consensus suggests that an average price of US$54 a barrel will be seen throughout 2015.

On the Euro front, Greece will seek about Euro 10billion in short-term financing. The new anti-bailout government will be presenting a proposal on Wednesday to improve financial conditions for the Greek public that have suffered five years of belt tightening, leaving over one quarter of the population without a job. The EU warns that they may not accept Greece’s demands for a relaxation of the current imposed austerity.

In markets, the Dow and S&P500 are relatively flat, trading down less than 0.5%.  The Aussie ASX will look for a lead in today’s trading from the US but currently looks fairly subdued, until China data comes out later in the day.