Gen 07

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS BY NSFX 07.01.2016

  • BY:
  • Gennaio, 07th, 2016 20:03 +00:00

Good evening,

After the Chinese stock market declined another 7% and the session was halted, the selloff continued in Europe with the DAX that lost 234 points and closed below the psychological level 10,000 at 9,979.85 (-2.229%).  In US both the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P500 are trading near their intraday lows, with losses above 2%, but the news that Chinese Authorities decided to suspend the use of circuit breakers may decelerate the selling action on equities of the Asian country.

Crude Oil is trading very close to the spikes reached back in 2008-2009, and is losing 68 cents at 33.29 $/barrel (2.06%). A technical rebound of the commodity is quite likely but is relevant to weight how the market will digest tomorrow US Job Data.  Natural Gas rallied today (+5.09%) as inventories decreased and Gold is trading at 1,109.5 (+1.61%), The breakout of  1,100 and trades that are looking for haven in case of market in turmoil are lifting the shiny metal.

In the FX market GbpUsd  and EurUsd reached important levels: The British Pound reached a multiyear low (the support at the moment is working) against the Greenback and EurUsd is trading close to the supply line generated on May 2015 and also is having its best performance since the 3rd of December, when ECB Draghi disappointed the financial community  regarding both the quantity and the quality of the quantitative easing. The lost of hundreds of billion in market capitalization are a threat to the wealth effect and to the slow recovery in the Eurozone. The medium term macro view on the Euro is still negative but if EurUsd should breakout the dynamic resistance technical buyers may lift the rate to test 1.12 and then 1.15 in a short time window. UsdJpy is down for the seventh consecutive session, and the BOJ may intervene if sellers will try to bring the rate below last August low (116).

The performance of the Asian session will be very important for the opening of the European session, and many short sellers may close their positions before the weekend. Tomorrow at 13:30 GMT will be released the US Non Farm Payroll, thus volatility trading strategies should be preferred to trading strategies that expect trading range environments.

(20:00 GMT)